Nebius Group Is Trading Near All-Time Highs, Here's How Far It Has Come

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When MarketBeat first began writing about Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) in December 2024, the company was described as one of the most exciting small-cap plays in the AI infrastructure space. At the time, the stock had just surged nearly 45% in a single week following a $700 million private placement involving NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Accel. Revenue was running at an annualized rate of $120 million. The company had no widespread formal analyst coverage. And the forward guidance, projecting an annualized revenue run rate of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025, was seen as ambitious by some.

Today, Nebius is trading near its all-time high above $160, is up over 600% in the past year, and carries a market cap of over $39 billion. The ambition was justified.

From Small-Cap Speculation to AI Infrastructure Leader

The transformation in almost two years has been remarkable. When MarketBeat first started covering Nebius, it had minimal analyst coverage, a small revenue base, and a compelling but largely unproven thesis.

The bull case rested on the AI infrastructure buildout and global adoption, NVIDIA's backing, the scale of the AI infrastructure opportunity, and management's track record at building large-scale technology operations.

That thesis has since materialized at every turn. Annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion by year-end 2025, up 127% quarter over quarter and well ahead of the original guidance range. Full-year 2025 revenue surpassed $500 million. Management reiterated its 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion. Nebius revenue guidance for 2026 was set at $3 billion to $3.4 billion, and contracted power guidance increased from over 2.5 gigawatts to over 3 gigawatts.

The scale of those numbers compared to where the company stood roughly 16 months ago is difficult to overstate. Nebius is no longer a small-cap speculation story. It is now a large-cap AI infrastructure compounder with a $41 billion market cap, and a pipeline that management describes as exceeding $4 billion.

Recent Catalysts Driving the Stock to All-Time Highs

The stock's surge to all-time highs has been driven by a series of landmark developments over the past few months. In March, NVIDIA announced a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius, a significantly larger commitment than its initial $700 million private placement. That same month, Nebius signed what management described as the largest contract in company history: a $27 billion deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) for dedicated AI compute capacity over five years. Nebius also has a significant deal with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), with the hyperscaler committing up to $19.4 billion for GPU compute from Nebius's New Jersey data center.

Together, those three deals represent approximately $46 billion in committed and contracted revenue, a staggering figure for a company that was generating $120 million in annualized revenue just over a year ago.

Analysts Have Taken Notice

Just as the market has responded with its re-pricing of the stock over the last two years, so too has analyst coverage. Just a year ago, the stock was covered by just two analysts, and before that, even fewer. Now, however, it’s a very different picture.

Fourteen analysts now cover Nebius, and the sentiment is still bullish, despite the stock's run. NBIS has a consensus Moderate Buy rating (though it is fairly valued according to the consensus price target of $154.75). Many of the street’s most reputable and largest firms cover the name, including Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs.

Nebius Didn't Dissapoint, But What Comes Next?

For readers who first learned of Nebius when MarketBeat initially wrote about the stock in late 2024, Nebius has certainly not disappointed. The NVIDIA relationship has deepened into a $2 billion strategic investment. The revenue trajectory has surpassed even the most ambitious early projections. And the company has now signed contracts with some of the world's largest technology and hyperscaler companies.

Nebius is no longer an overlooked, undercover small-cap as it was in late 2024. It is one of the most closely watched AI infrastructure names in the market. With 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and a backlog that continues to grow, the fundamental momentum shows no signs of slowing. Whether the current valuation has priced in that momentum is a question each investor will need to answer for themselves.

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